Since our initial look at the race, former state Rep. Kemp was booed at a state GOP convention last month, although he came out of the confab still appearing formidable, according to David Siders and Maya King of Politico. The latter move, in particular, infuriated Trump. But Kemp made two moves, which bookended the 2020 election cycle, that gave Trump loyalists reason to grumble: in late 2019, he snubbed Trump’s preferred choice for a Senate appointment, then, as the 2020 calendar year wound down, he insisted that his state’s tally in the presidential contest - which showed now-President Biden carrying the state - was accurate. With the help of then-President Donald Trump in the primary, he went on to defeat the Democratic nominee, former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, in a close race. One of the first governors to draw a challenge was Georgia’s Brian Kemp, who originally won his post in 2018. That said, at least one incumbent has lost renomination in each of the last four midterms. The last time more than two incumbents lost a primary in any even-numbered year was 1954, and the last time more than one lost a primary was 1994.

Still, it is rare for incumbent governors to lose primaries. One theme so far this cycle is that several incumbent Republican governors, from across the GOP’s ideological spectrum, have drawn primary challengers who are at least somewhat credible. Though we won’t be making any ratings changes at this point, some of the developments in key races deserve attention.

While we’ve written quite a bit about the race developing in our home state, Virginia, this calendar year, there are three-dozen states that will hold contests next year. It’s been almost exactly four months since the Crystal Ball launched our initial 2022 gubernatorial ratings.

2022 Republican gubernatorial primaries take shape While we’re holding off on making any ratings changes for now, any primary upsets may prompt us to reevaluate some races. Most, though not all, Republican primary challengers who have emerged are running to the right of their incumbents. Still, it is relatively rare for sitting governors to lose renomination, and all GOP incumbents appear to be favored in their primaries. With months to go until the 2022 gubernatorial primaries, several Republican governors have drawn notable primary challengers.

The last crystal drawing